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Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Both explicitly allow for the cancellation of trades "in exceptional cases", which would be a fair description of last year's nickel market meltdown and the resulting threat of multiple member defaults. This is a case of "knowing one when you see one" or "the elephant test" in legal precedent, the judges said. Nor would it have affected Chamberlain's assessment that nickel trading had become irrational and disorderly on the morning of March 8. LME trading has been transformed by the crisis in the form of permanent caps on time-spreads and limits on intraday price movements.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Jonathan Swift, Robert Bright, Matthew Chamberlain, Jane Street, Chamberlain, China's, Xiang Guangda, Oliver Wyman, Tsingshan, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, London High, Elliott Associates, Jane, Global Trading, Financial, Authority, China's Tsingshan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - China's imports of refined copper have quietly accelerated over recent months, taking volumes to a year-to-date high in October. China's appetite for imported copper is not confined to refined metal. It is also absorbing record amounts of copper concentrates and imports of recyclable metal are running at the fastest pace since 2018. China's trade in refined copperIMPORT STRENGTHChina imported 353,000 metric tons of refined copper in October, which was the highest monthly volume this year. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks, bonded stocks and Yangshan premiumBOOMING OUTPUT, LOW STOCKSHigher raw materials imports this year have allowed China's smelters to ramp up run rates.

Persons: Barbara Lewis Organizations: Democratic, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Stocks, International Energy Exchange, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Democratic Republic of Congo, China, Congo, Beijing, Shanghai

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO.L) last week inked the first major 2024 concentrates supply deal with China's Jinchuan Group. Indeed, it's far from certain there will be a single benchmark for next year due to a shifting copper concentrates landscape. Annual "benchmark" copper smelter treatment chargesSPLIT BENCHMARK? Other members of China's Copper Smelters Purchase Team, a grouping of the country's biggest players, have rejected Jinchuan's terms as a benchmark. Its new Manyar copper smelter will start ramping up from May.

Persons: Freeport, Chen Yunian, Jinchuan, it's, Jan Harvey Organizations: China's Jinchuan, TC, Freeport McMoRan, HK, Study, China's, Copper, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Jinchuan, Freeport, Indonesia, Panama, Peru, Chile, China, Jiangxi, Canada, Botswana

Now Widodo also needs a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States for Indonesian materials to qualify for the generous EV subsidies available under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). What it got after last week's bilateral meeting was a commitment "to develop a critical minerals action plan (...) with a view toward establishing the foundation to launch future negotiations on a critical minerals agreement". The joint statement included some pointers as to what the United States expects from that action plan in terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards. A limited trade agreement on critical minerals could become an even more restricted deal if it were to apply only to non-Chinese material streams. South Korea has the advantage of having had an FTA with the United States since 2012.

Persons: Joko Widodo, Tesla, Widodo, Washington, Biden, Joe Manchin, Janet Yellen, Manchin, Trafigura, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Vale Tbk, U.S, Biden, GREEN, Benchmark Minerals, Australia, Greenpeace, of, Group, Minerals, Korea, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sorowako, Indonesia's, Asian, United States, Indonesia, United, GREEN Indonesia, Philippines, Ulsan, South Korea, Morocco, South

View of the Cobre Panama mine, of Canada's First Quantum Minerals, in Donoso, Panama, December 6, 2022. Panama has a long mining history but Cobre Panama is the first major new investment this century. There are now calls not just for the Cobre Panama mine to be closed but for Panama to shun all future mining as well. By the time detailed negotiations on a new contract started in 2021, the mine was already ramping up to full production. The tale of Cobre Panama is an object lesson in getting it wrong.

Persons: El Salvador, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Minerals, REUTERS, Aris, Quantum, Environmental, Panama's, Justice, Supreme, Canada, Swedish Sámi Association, European Union, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Panama, Donoso, Rincon, Cobre Panama, Canada, American, Europe, Serbia, Scandinavia, Russia, Panamanian

A delay in the new mine's ramp-up would add to the growing stresses on the zinc raw materials supply chain. Low prices have resulted in a lengthening list of mine curtailments in recent months, resulting in falling smelter treatment terms and a rising refined zinc price. London Metal Exchange three-month zinc pricePRICE CASUALTIESThe LME zinc price hit a three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May, triggering a string of mine closures. By the end of September analysts at Macquarie Bank had already totted up closures totalling 300,000 metric tons of annual zinc capacity. It is designed to churn out around 345,000 metric tons a year of contained zinc, making it the single largest addition to zinc mine supply in 2024.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Boliden, Price, it's, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Metals, Aeris Resources, Macquarie Bank, Fastmarkets, Study, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Swedish, Ireland, Queensland, Western Australia, Portugal, Mexico, Tennessee

REUTERS/Sergio Perez Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - European Union (EU) energy ministers last month struck a deal to reform the bloc's power market. German power market forwards for 2024 and 2025LIGHT-TOUCH REFORMEuropean power prices have fallen a long way from their 2022 peaks, when the region was still reeling from the reduction in Russian gas supplies. EU member states were deeply split on proposals for more fundamental reform of Europe's power market to allow for a complete break of the gas-power price linkage. The hard-won compromise keeps the existing market mechanism, which its supporters claim is more efficient than other models in a liberalised electricity market. The bloc's power prices have historically been twice those of the U.S., but are now three or four times higher.

Persons: Sergio Perez, Teresa Ribera, Bernard Respaut, Mats Gustavsson, Boliden, Gustavsson, Respaut, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Union, Spain's Energy, Producers, European Copper Institute, EU, Alcoa, PPA, European Commission, Metals, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain, Ukraine, San, EU, U.S, Ireland, Europe

REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Another month, another new record for China's primary aluminium production sector. Power availability is proving to be as effective a cap on China's aluminium production as any government mandate. Some of that production capacity has only just been powered up after a previous round of restrictions was lifted in June. And an increasingly significant one as ever more Chinese aluminium capacity migrates from north to south to lower the carbon footprint. Rainfall in Yunnan is now the key determinant of China's primary aluminium production capacity.

Persons: Stringer, John Kemp, wean, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, International Aluminium Institute, China Southern Power, AZ Consulting, China Hongqiao, HK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Zouping, Shandong province, China, Beijing, Yunnan, YUNNAN, It's, Shandong

Antara Foto/Jojon/via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The bears are out in force on the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel market. The global nickel market is entering a period of massive oversupply thanks to an Indonesian production boom. INSG assessed monthly nickel supply-demand balanceBIG SURPLUSThe big short is a bet on a big surplus. The global nickel market moved into supply-demand surplus in May last year and has been there ever since, according to the International Nickel Study Group. The exact timing of that tipping-point is still unknown, which means the big short is still a big bet that the supply chain can close the nickel product gap sooner rather than later.

Persons: Antara, aren't, it's, It's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: PT Vale Indonesia, REUTERS Acquire, London Metal Exchange, Fund, Investment, Study, EV, Shanghai Futures, GAP Indonesia, Jingmen, New Energy Science, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sorowako, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, Indonesian, London

REUTERS/Claro Cortes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - China's imports of tin concentrates collapsed in September, reflecting the suspension of mining activity in the semi-autonomous Wa state in neighbouring Myanmar. China's imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar and other sourcesIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 7,300 metric tons of tin concentrates in September, which was the lowest monthly count since February 2019. Imports from Myanmar slumped to just 1,421 metric tons after a mini surge over July and August ahead of the mining ban. The Myanmar ban has to date had little impact on either China's production of refined tin or the tin price. The boom in tin usage for home electronics during lockdown in 2020-2021 has given way to a prolonged downturn.

Persons: Claro, that's, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, United Wa State Army, Democratic, London Metal Exchange, International Tin Association, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Claro Cortes, Wa, Myanmar, China, Tanintharyi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, Brazil, Russia

REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin - S1AETWEXAZAA Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China's exports of refined lead hit a 15-month high in September with year-to-date shipments already exceeding last year's total. China's net trade in refined leadEXPORTS ACCELERATEChina exported 35,400 metric tons of refined lead in September, which was the highest monthly tally since June of last year. LME lead three-month price, cash-3s spread and stocksLME STOCKS REBUILDThe relocation of stocks from China to the West has seen LME stocks rebuild from their depleted year-start levels. Headline stocks of 125,225 metric tons are up by 100,075 metric tons on January and are the highest they've been in almost three years. The LME stocks rebuild has been driven by repeated bouts of tightness across the front part of the forward curve in recent months.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Novoangarsk, Russia, China, Shanghai, Europe, Stolberg, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Thursday's, London

A worker stores aluminium ingots at the foundry shop of the Rusal Krasnoyarsk aluminium smelter in Krasnoyarsk, Russia October 3, 2018. China, meanwhile, is emerging as an increasingly important market for Rusal's finished products as Western appetite for Russian metal shrinks. China shipped over a million metric tons of alumina in 2022, of which 843,000 metric tons went to Russia. China's imports of primary aluminium vs Russian-brand metalCHINA IMPORTS MORE RUSSIAN METALWhile Chinese alumina has been flowing to Russia, increasing quantities of Russian aluminium have also been entering China. But the world's largest producer is now operating close to a government-mandated capacity cap of 45 million metric tons.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Rusal, China wouldn't, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Rusal's, GAP, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Krasnoyarsk, Russia, Hebei Wenfeng, Queensland, Australia, China, Ukraine, Russian, mushrooming, CHINA, Volgograd, Novokuznetsk, Siberia, Yunnan

REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China is upping the critical minerals stakes by curbing exports of graphite, a key raw material in electric vehicle batteries. There is much potential for further escalation in this unfolding critical minerals battle between China and the West. Previous restrictions on lower-grade graphite exports destined for the steel and lubricants sectors have been rescinded. The world's graphite supply chain could well be in for a similar short-term shock. Western governments are still evaluating their response, waiting like the rest of us to see how China's graphite volumes play out in the coming months.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Wei Jianguo, Wei, Biden, Obama, Trump, Adam Hodge, China's Wei, David Evans Organizations: Volkswagen, REUTERS, Commerce, U.S, Chips, Benchmark Minerals, U.S . Department, Department of Defense, EV, World Trade Organization, European Union, WTO, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Salzgitter, Germany, China, U.S, Alaska, Australia, Japan

Zinc's relative under-performance is down to a build-up of excess metal as the global market shifts from supply shortfall to widening surplus. It now thinks zinc supply will exceed usage by a hefty 248,000 tonnes with the surplus growing to 367,000 in 2024. Zinc market balance forecasts by the ILZSGSHIFT TO SURPLUSThe zinc market's shift to surplus after two years of supply deficit is down to weaker-than-expected demand and higher-than-expected production. European demand is expected to contract by 1.8% this year due to slowing activity in the construction sector, which accounts for around half of zinc demand in the form of galvanised steel. LME zinc price, stocks and cash-3s spreadNOW YOU SEE IT...

Persons: LME, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, OZ Minerals, London Metal Exchange, Citi, Thomson Locations: Lawn Hill, Queensland, Europe, China, New Orleans, United States, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang

The future may be bright and electric but copper and the rest of the LME metals are currently caught in an old-fashioned industrial downturn. Such "green" investment appears to be acting as a major offset to the downturn in the traditional metals demand driver that is the commercial property market. MIXED SIGNALSThe energy transition and the resulting booster to metals demand was the core talking-point at this year's collective LME Week discussions. Yet the LME metals have not yet escaped the gravitational pull of the traditional industry cycle. But most visitors to LME Week will have returned home braced for more short-term price weakness.

Persons: Ruben Sprich, Max Layton, Tin, Jeremy Pearce, Jorge Vazquez, Jim Lennon, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Metal Exchange, Citi, International Tin Association, HIT, Study, GREEN, Groups, European Union, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Thoerishaus, Bern, London, Macquarie, China, Europe, North America, Indonesia, GREEN CHINA, China . China, United States

Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Rebuilding the London nickel contract is clearly very much work in progress. FIXING NICKELOthers, meanwhile, are looking to muscle into the LME's nickel price discovery domain. The Shanghai market also took a big collateral hit from the London turmoil, volumes on its nickel contract collapsing by 53% last year relative to 2021. The blow-out of the nickel contract and the resulting near-death experience of both brokers and exchange have sapped confidence in the historical market of last resort.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Nicolas Aguzin, Matthew Chamberlain, hasn't, it's, Ireland's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Elliott Associates, Jane, Trading, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Bloomberg, London, Global Commodities Holdings, Abaxx Commodities Exchange, Canadian, Technologies Inc, Shanghai Futures Exchange, EV, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, London's, China, Shanghai, U.S

REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The copper market will transition from supply-demand balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said after its meeting in Lisbon this week. However, its assessment chimes with a copper market consensus that Chinese demand has surprised to the upside this year. It has trimmed only very slightly its 2024 global usage growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.7%. Operating constraints and smelter maintenance outages in Chile, Indonesia, Sweden and the United States will cap copper production outside of China this year. It's worth noting that the ICSG's most recent monthly bulletin suggests the global copper market notched up a hefty 215,000-metric ton production surplus in the first seven months of 2023.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Everyone's, Andy Home, Susan Fenton Organizations: BHP Billiton's Escondida, REUTERS, Study, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Chile, Lisbon, China, North America, Europe, United States, Indonesia, Sweden, India

REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad/File Photo - RC2DGT9XQ73M Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Global nickel production will outpace demand to the tune of 239,000 metric tons next year, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The cumulative forecast surplus of 566,000 metric tons over the three years is huge relative to the size of the nickel market. Global consumption this year is expected to come in at 3.2 million metric tons. The mining rush fed an 85% jump in production of intermediate products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel matte and a 20% rise in primary nickel products such as sulphate. But rising global production is also increasingly about China, which lifted its primary nickel production by 18% year-on-year in January-July.

Persons: Yusuf Ahmad, it's, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Study, Global, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Investor, EV, Macquarie Bank, Traders, London, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lisbon, London, Indonesia, China, Shanghai

Last trading at $7,990 per metric ton, London copper is now within sight of the year-to-date lows of $7,867-7,871 recorded in late May. Investment fund positioning on CME copper contractBEARS FLEX MUSCLES ON CMEFund positioning on the CME copper contract has oscillated between long and short for several months as the price chopped around in a sideways range. Outright long copper positions have been slashed from 63,665 contracts at the start of September to 35,050 as of the Sept. 26 close. Net positioning has shifted to a collective short of 3,051 contracts, just shy of the 3,228-contract peak 2023 short in June. It's worth noting that the "other financial" reporting category, which includes index funds, is still in modest net long territory.

Persons: Kim Hong, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Fund, London Metal Exchange, Investors, Investment, CME, Bulls, Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Gunsan, South Korea, London, U.S, United States, Tuesday's

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - China's appetite for base metal imports appears to be growing. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVEChina's imports of primary aluminium surged to a near two-year high of 153,000 metric tons in August, bringing the year-to-date count to 755,000 metric tons. SLOW COPPER BOAT TO SHANGHAIRefined copper imports were 340,000 metric tons in August, the highest monthly tally this year. The country's refined zinc trade has reverted to net imports this year but volumes remain modest by historical standards. SHIFTING THE NICKEL MIXThere has been no pick-up in China's imports of refined nickel.

Persons: Florence Lo, they've, They've, China's, David Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, LOVE, Malaysian, New, Democratic, China's CMOC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, contango, Shanghai, RUSSIA, U.S, New Zealand, SHANGHAI, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Indonesia

REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Global production of primary aluminium hit an all-time high in August, with the world's smelters running at an annualised rate of 71.2 million metric tons. It now estimates national output rose by 1.3 million metric tons. Global production in August came in at 6.0 million metric tons, up 1.6% on August last year, while cumulative production of 46.5 million metric tons was up 1.7% on the year-ago period. The country's annualised run-rate has increased by 2.1 million metric tons since March and registered a fresh all-time high of 42.4 million tons in August. Everything depends on rainfall levels in Yunnan, which has emerged as a major aluminium production hub due to its "green", low-carbon credentials.

Persons: Stringer, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, International Aluminium Institute, IAI, Institute, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London, Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Binzhou, Shandong province, China, Malaysia, Iran, Yunnan, Sichuan

REUTERS/Beawiharta Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of tin have grown steadily over the summer months and have reached levels last seen in April 2020. Around half of the tin produced every year is used as a soldering material on circuit boards, linking usage to the fortunes of the consumer electronics sector. Global semiconductor sales from SIABOOM AND BUSTTin's fortunes are closely tied to the consumer electronics sector, which has experienced a remarkable boom-and-bust cycle over the last three years. That translated into a boom year for tin demand, usage growing by 7.6%, led by a 12.2% rise in the soldering sector, according to the International Tin Association. However, global semiconductor sales have registered small month-on-month increases since April and the year-on-year gap narrowed to 11.8% in July, according to the SIA.

Persons: Lockdowns, Boom, Barbara Lewis Organizations: PT Timah, REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, SIA, Semiconductor, Semiconductor Industry Association, International Tin Association, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Wa State, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mentok, Indonesian, Bangka, Myanmar, London, Shanghai, Wa, China

LME copper stocks and Cash-3s time-spreadSUMMER SURGEAlmost 100,000 metric tons of copper have been warranted in the LME warehouse network since the middle of July, lifting headline stocks to 149,600 metric tons. European inflows have been split between Rotterdam (19,325 metric tons) and the German port of Hamburg (9,850). The CME's delivery locations, however, don't include Mobile, Alabama, where LME copper stocks have grown to 1,925 metric tons. The amount of cancelled stock awaiting physical load-out from the LME warehouse system currently stands at a minimal 225 metric tons. LME, LME shadow, CME, ShFE and INE copper stocksCHINA OFFSETThe copper stocks surge has to date been largely confined to the LME delivery system.

Persons: Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Mobile, CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Asia, Kaohsiung, Busan, New Orleans, Mobile , Alabama, London, ShFE, CHINA

China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market continues to be plagued by low inventory and tight time-spreads. China's imports, exports and net trade in refined zincRETURN TO THE IMPORT MARKETChina was a consistent net importer of refined zinc over the last decade, but that changed in 2022. Shanghai zinc stocks seasonal patterns over 2020-2023LOW INVENTORYShFE registered stocks stand at a modest 43,181 tons. Sentiment, however, holds the real key to the Shanghai premium. The country's trade in refined zinc may prove a useful mirror on that question over the next few months.

Persons: Cash, It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: Share, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Eritrea's, Asmara, Eritrea, China, Shanghai, Europe, Turkey, U.S, Antwerp, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Guangdong, London

Lead market dynamics are currently tepid at best due to weakness in the automotive sector, which accounts for around 70% of total demand in the form of lead-acid batteries. But some of that surplus would be very welcome right now in Shanghai, since the local market is in the grips of a vicious short squeeze. ShFE price, stocks and market open interestBIG SHORTThis Shanghai lead squeeze has been building for a couple of months. ShFE time-spreads were already tightening up in July against a backdrop of low exchange stocks and rising open interest. After exporting surplus metal for two years, the Chinese market seems to be struggling to find enough to deliver into the Shanghai squeeze.

Persons: Darren Whiteside, that's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bogor, Jakarta, Indonesia, Shanghai, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, London

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